30th Celebration Pull Rates: Odds From 3,000+ Packs

30th Celebration pull rates are friendlier than any recent English set: TCGplayer found a Special Illustration Rare in about 1 of every 21 packs, and four community counts agree within a few packs. The Pokémon Company has not published official odds, so everything below comes from public opening counts that you can check yourself.

TL;DR: From TCGplayer's sample of more than 3,000 packs: Double Rare 1 in 5, Illustration Rare 1 in 5, Classic Collection 1 in 10, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 21, Futuristic Rare 1 in 120. No RGB Rare turned up. A nine-pack Elite Trainer Box gives you about a 37% chance at one SIR. A specific SIR takes about 205 packs on average.

What are the 30th Celebration pull rates? (quick answer)

In TCGplayer's sample of more than 3,000 packs, a Double Rare or an Illustration Rare showed up in about 1 of every 5 packs, a Classic Collection reprint in 1 of 10, a Special Illustration Rare in 1 of 21 and a Futuristic Rare in 1 of 120. Every pack also has a guaranteed Pikachu rare. No count has pinned down the RGB Rare.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer Authentication Center, read October 9, 2026

Where the 30th Celebration pull rates come from

Pokémon does not publish odds. Its own support page says the company is "unable to guarantee a specific pokémon or type of card (pokémon ex, prism star, etc.) in any specific booster pack." The official 30th Celebration expansion page even notes that its Pikachu feature does not "indicate the contents, odds, pull rates, or distribution of cards" in real packs.

So the numbers come from people counting. Five counts matter here:

Tommy13's log is the biggest single count, but it was built from other people's streams, so it depends on what streamers chose to show. TCGplayer opened its own packs and published error bars, which is why its figures lead this article.

Key Takeaways

• A hit roughly every three packs. TCGplayer calls this a big step up from most Mega Evolution sets.
• SIR about 1 in 21, against 1 in 80 in most Mega Evolution Series sets, per TCGplayer.
• Futuristic Rare about 1 in 120. Only two exist, so a specific one is about 1 in 240.
• RGB Rare: unknown. None in TCGplayer's 3,000+ packs, one in Tommy13's 4,063.
• Packs are independent. No English box guarantees an SIR, unlike Japanese M6a boxes.

Overview: what is in a 30th Celebration pack

Each pack holds five foil cards, one of which is one of 30 Pikachu rares, plus a foil Basic Energy. That comes from The Pokémon Company's product showcase. The Pikachu sits in the last slot and is guaranteed, so TCGplayer leaves it out of the hit rates below.

The hits sit in two slots. Per TCGplayer, an Illustration Rare or a Classic Collection reprint shows up in the third slot, and a Double Rare, Special Illustration Rare or Futuristic Rare in the fourth. Two results follow. An IR and an SIR can land in the same pack. An SIR and a Futuristic Rare should never share a pack, since, as Bill's Archive puts it, "both sit in slot 4."

The official checklist has 12 Double Rares, 18 Illustration Rares (129 to 146), 10 Special Illustration Rares (147 to 156) and two Futuristic Rares (157 and 158). For the full list and which cards lead on price, see our 30th Celebration card list with every chase card.

30th Celebration pull rates by rarity, most to least common

These are TCGplayer's rates from its own openings, with the 95% confidence interval it published for each.

1. Double Rare: about 1 in 5

The most common hit. With 12 Double Rares in the set, TCGplayer's odds for any single one are 1 in 48 packs.

2. Illustration Rare: about 1 in 5

Almost as common as a Double Rare, because they come from a different slot. TCGplayer compared this with most Mega Evolution sets, which run "1:9 for illustration rares." In 30th Celebration "those rates are 1:5."

3. Classic Collection: about 1 in 10

Bill's Archive notes that the 30 Classic Collection reprints "also turn up in ordinary booster packs, about one pack in 10, in all four counts." A specific one, Charizard included, sits around 1 in 295 in TCGplayer's sample (0.34%).

4. Special Illustration Rare: about 1 in 21

TCGplayer found SIRs in 4.88% of packs and compares that with "1:80 for special illustration rares" in most Mega Evolution sets. Any specific SIR is about 1 in 205.

5. Futuristic Rare: about 1 in 120

Two cards by YOSHIROTTEN, Mewtwo ex 157/128 and Mew ex 158/128 (English numbering), share 0.83% of packs. The interval is wide at ± 0.31%, because a 3,000-pack sample only holds about two dozen of them.

Card image: pokemon.com card database, arranged by SetPulls

6. RGB Rare: no reliable rate

TCGplayer reported that "we did not find a single rgb mew card" in more than 3,000 packs. Tommy13 saw one in 4,063. According to Wargamer's write-up of that log, a single hit means the real rate "could be anywhere from one in 718 to one in 23,016." Any site that quotes a precise RGB rate is guessing.

GODEEPER: Every product the set comes in, with contents and MSRP for each. Pokemon TCG Products Guide 2026 →

Analysis: four counts that agree

A single count can be skewed by luck, so Bill's Archive set the 4,063-pack log beside three smaller counts of about 800, 652 and 420 packs.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: Bill's Archive four-count comparison, read October 9, 2026

The SIR rate is the solid one: all four counts sit between 1 in 18 and 1 in 19.8, a little more generous than TCGplayer's 1 in 21. The Futuristic Rare figures rest on very few pulls in the smaller counts (eight and four), so the spread from 1 in 82 to 1 in 105 is about what you would expect.

@switchstock posted rates from an even larger sample on launch day:

Not every pack has something beyond the Pikachu. In the 652-pack count, "about 43% of packs hold nothing beyond the pikachu," while "the other 57% have at least one" Double Rare or better.

Odds by product: ETB, bundle, Pokémon Center ETB

Bill's Archive turned the rates into the chance of at least one of each hit per product.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: Bill's Archive odds by product, read October 9, 2026

Even the Pokémon Center box misses an SIR more often than it hits one. Bill's Archive puts the halfway point at 14 packs: "half of collectors will have a special illustration rare within 14 packs, and nine in ten within 45." For a Futuristic Rare, the halfway point is 69 packs. For what is inside each box and what each one cost on October 9, see our 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box breakdown.

English and Japanese packs work differently here. Bill's Archive found exactly one SIR or SAR in every one of 57 Japanese M6a boxes counted (20 packs each). English packs "are independent of each other," so no English product carries that guarantee.

What it costs to chase one card

For one specific SIR, TCGplayer puts the odds at about 1 in 205 packs. At the $49.99 Elite Trainer Box MSRP, nine packs come to about $5.55 each. 205 packs at that price is about $1,138 of product, at MSRP, to expect one copy of one named SIR.

Compare that with the single. Mew ex 152/128 had a TCGplayer market price of $80.76 on October 9, 2026. One Reddit reply to the TCGplayer rates summed up the choice: "High hit rate any card at Double Rare minimum but if you want a specific CC or SIR, just buy the single after 2-3 months."

The Pikachu set is the one chase that packs serve well. Bill's Archive estimates that completing all 30 Pikachu rares from packs "takes about 120 packs on average," and a single ETB gives you about eight different ones.

Luck runs both ways. Another reply in the same thread: "I had horrible luck getting the classic collection but my luck with SIRs and futures was insane."

GODEEPER: Where 30th Celebration sits among every Mega Evolution era set, with official release dates. Pokemon TCG Sets in Order: 2026 Guide →

Our take

This take is based only on the counts cited above. 30th Celebration is the rare set where opening packs is a reasonable way to enjoy the product: a hit about every three packs and an SIR around 1 in 20 is a big change from the 1 in 80 TCGplayer cites for most Mega Evolution sets. It is still a poor way to get a particular card. If you want one named SIR or a Futuristic Rare, the single costs a fraction of the packs you would need on average. Open packs for the fun and the Pikachu set, and buy the one card you care about.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 30th Celebration Special Illustration Rare pull rate? TCGplayer found an SIR in 4.88% of more than 3,000 packs, about 1 in 21. Four community counts landed between 1 in 18 and 1 in 19.8. Any one specific SIR is much rarer, about 1 in 205 packs in TCGplayer's sample.

How rare are the 30th Celebration Futuristic Rares? About 1 in 120 packs in TCGplayer's sample (0.83% ± 0.31%), and 1 in 82 to 1 in 105 in community counts. Only two exist, Mewtwo ex 157/128 and Mew ex 158/128 by YOSHIROTTEN, so a specific one is about 1 in 240.

What are the odds of pulling the RGB Mew in 30th Celebration? Unknown. TCGplayer found none in more than 3,000 packs, and the 4,063-pack log saw one. A single hit is consistent with a true rate anywhere from about 1 in 718 to 1 in 23,016, so any precise figure is a guess.

Does every 30th Celebration pack have a hit? Every pack has a guaranteed Pikachu rare in the last slot. Beyond that, a 652-pack count found about 57% of packs held a Double Rare or better and 43% held nothing more. TCGplayer puts a hit at roughly every three packs.

What are the odds of an SIR in a 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box? About 37% for a nine-pack Elite Trainer Box, per Bill's Archive. The six-pack booster bundle comes to 26% and the 11-pack Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box to 43%. English packs are independent of each other, so no English box guarantees one, unlike Japanese M6a boxes.

Related Reading

• Pokemon card collecting guide 2026: where pull rates fit next to condition, grading, storage and spotting fakes.
• PSA vs CGC vs BGS grading fees 2026: what it costs to grade an SIR once you pull one.
• Pokemon TCG release dates 2026-2027: the next English sets and products after 30th Celebration.

References

• TCGplayer: Pokémon TCG 30th Celebration pull rates
• Bill's Archive: 30th Celebration pull rates, four counts compared
• Bill's Archive: 30th Celebration MSRP list
• Wargamer: 30th Celebration pull rates from 4,063 packs
• Sports Illustrated: 30th Celebration pull rates and card prices
• Pokemon.com: 30th Celebration product showcase
• Pokemon.com: 30th Celebration set page
• tcg.pokemon.com: 30th Celebration expansion page
• Pokémon Support: what to expect in a booster pack
• Official 30th Celebration card list (PDF)
• TCGplayer: Mew ex 152/128
• r/PokemonTCG: 30th pull rates from over 4,000 pack openings
• r/PokemonTCG: TCGplayer 30th pull rates thread
• X: @switchstock 30th Celebration pull rates from 6,500+ packs