30th Celebration Prices at Day 30: The Slide Has Slowed
Four weeks took 63% off the 158 numbered cards. The last four days took 3.1%. Here's what's still falling, what isn't, and what lands on November 6.
8 min readThe Pull Desk
Last reviewed
30th Celebration prices have slowed sharply: one of every numbered card cost $673.34 on TCGplayer on October 16, 3.1% less than four days earlier, after a 63% drop in the first four weeks. If you've been waiting for the set to bottom out before buying singles, the fastest part of the fall is behind you.
Release day was September 16. By October 13 the same 158 cards had gone from $1,885.06 to $688.23, according to a count by Bill's Archive built on 157,361 recorded sales. We read TCGplayer's price guide on October 12 and again on October 16, 07:29 UTC, to see whether the fall was still going.
| Card (English, 30th Celebration) | Sep 16 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Since release | Last 4 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mew ex 152/128 SIR | $194.29 | $85.67 | $84.42 | -56.5% | -1.5% |
| Gengar ex 154/128 SIR | $145.45 | $74.79 | $73.32 | -49.6% | -2.0% |
| Pikachu ex 150/128 SIR | $155.83 | $59.16 | $56.14 | -64.0% | -5.1% |
| Mew ex 158/128 Futuristic Rare | $248.04 | $61.23 | $51.38 | -79.3% | -16.1% |
| Mewtwo ex 151/128 SIR | $114.65 | $49.39 | $49.87 | -56.5% | +1.0% |
| Pikachu ex 149/128 SIR | $159.59 | $47.38 | $46.48 | -70.9% | -1.9% |
| Jirachi ex 155/128 SIR | $76.95 | $46.13 | $43.04 | -44.1% | -6.7% |
| Sylveon ex 153/128 SIR | $123.12 | $41.67 | $40.90 | -66.8% | -1.8% |
TCGplayer market price, Near Mint. Sep 16 column: Bill's Archive, from TCGplayer's price history. Oct 12 and Oct 16 columns: TCGplayer Price Guide, read by SetPulls.
Our read on 30th Celebration prices now: buy the single
The call: buy the single you want. Don't open packs to chase it.
TCGplayer puts one named Special Illustration Rare at about 1 in 205 packs. At $12.56 a loose pack, that's about $2,600 on average to pull Mew ex 152, a card with a market price of $84.42. The odds come with wide error bars, so the real figure could sit anywhere from about $1,700 to $5,000, and every number in that range is still 20 times the card. Our worth-opening model runs the expected-value math for every product, and the card list with every chase shows what each one looks like.
On timing, the four-day numbers say the SIRs have mostly found their level: from October 12 to 16 none of the seven SIRs in our table moved more than $3.09. If you want one now, buy it. If it's a $50-plus card and you're in no hurry, we'd look again the week after November 6, when the Ultra-Premium packs start getting opened. Mew ex 158 is the exception that hasn't settled, so we'd wait on that one.
What would change our mind: the ten SIRs, $444.47 together on October 16, falling another 10% in the week after November 6. That would mean the Ultra-Premium packs are getting opened after all, and waiting pays.
30th Celebration prices fell hardest in the first four weeks
The big move is already over for the Special Illustration Rares. Mew ex 152 went from $194.29 to $85.67 between release day and October 12, then gave back only another $1.25 by October 16. Gengar ex, Pikachu ex 149 and Sylveon ex all moved 2% or less in those four days and Mewtwo ex 151 went up 1.0%, though Pikachu ex 150 lost 5.1% and Jirachi ex 6.7%.
Chart: SetPulls. Source: Bill's Archive (Sep 16), TCGplayer Price Guide read by SetPulls (Oct 12 and 16)
Across all 158 numbered cards, the total went from $695.15 on October 12 to $673.34 on October 16. That's $21.81 in four days, against almost $1,200 lost between release day and October 13. The cheap cards, numbers 001 to 128, even rose 6.3% together, from $53.09 to $56.44, which reads to us like a bulk floor more than demand: 82 of the 158 cards went up, and 73 of those 82 cost under a dollar. The money sits above 128, and those 30 cards fell 3.9%, with 24 of them down.
We have a spreadsheet, not a binder, so the only thing we can tell you about these cards is what they cost on a given morning.
Do the two counts agree?
They do. Bill's Archive put the 158 numbered cards at $688.23 on October 13. Our readings bracket it: $695.15 the day before, $673.34 three days later. Same cards, same TCGplayer market price, two separate reads, so we're comfortable leading with the $673.34.
Both counts leave out the three RGB Mew cards, which TCGplayer didn't find once in its 3,000-plus packs. The red one had a market price of $6,000.27 on October 16, nearly nine times the other 158 cards put together.
The chase card still sliding fast: Mew ex 158
The Futuristic Rare Mew ex lost 16.1% in four days, from $61.23 to $51.38. No other chase card in our table fell even half as fast; the next is Jirachi ex at 6.7%. It started highest of the eight, at $248.04 on release day, and now sits below Pikachu ex 150 at $56.14.
Card image: tcg.pokemon.com
The cheaper Illustration Rares are moving too. On October 4, in a r/PokemonTCG thread titled "30th single prices are crashing" (846 comments), u/Deep_Mechanic_ (109 points) predicted where the three legendary birds were going: "All three birds will be sub $5 in a week or two." On October 16, not yet. Articuno 132 was $5.82, Zapdos 133 $5.72 and Moltres 130 $6.21 on October 16. Zapdos and Articuno did lose 18.1% and 14.4% since October 12, and both are now within a dollar of the call. Moltres went up.
Sealed 30th Celebration prices held up better than singles
Of the seven sealed products we track, every one lost less than the singles did, and the four that aren't out yet lost the least, with two of them up. The windows differ: sealed runs from the Bill's Archive reading on September 3, singles from release day. To ours on October 16:
| Product | Sep 3 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Since Sep 3 | Last 4 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite Trainer Box | $187.77 | $139.22 | $132.03 | -29.7% | -5.2% |
| Pokémon Center ETB | $500.29 | $285.14 | $299.53 | -40.1% | +5.0% |
| Booster Bundle (out Oct 2) | $92.03 | $73.92 | $74.72 | -18.8% | +1.1% |
| Binder Collection (out Dec 4) | $80.10 | $109.65 | $109.40 | +36.6% | -0.2% |
| Ditto Premium Collection (out Nov 6) | $197.80 | $192.72 | $192.70 | -2.6% | 0.0% |
| Ultra-Premium Collection Day (out Nov 6) | $619.81 | $561.50 | $560.67 | -9.5% | -0.1% |
| Ultra-Premium Collection Night (out Nov 6) | $662.88 | $693.70 | $673.51 | +1.6% | -2.9% |
TCGplayer market price. Sep 3: Bill's Archive. Oct 12: TCGplayer product pages, SetPulls tracker. Oct 16: TCGplayer Price Guide, Sealed Products tab, read by SetPulls at 07:30 UTC. Release dates: pokemon.com.
The Pokémon Center ETB's September 3 price rested on four recorded sales, Bill's Archive notes, so its 40.1% drop is the shakiest number here.
Chart: SetPulls. Source: Bill's Archive (Sep 3), TCGplayer Price Guide read by SetPulls (Oct 16)
The Elite Trainer Box at $132.03 is still 2.6 times its $49.99 US list price. That's $14.67 for each of its nine packs, when a loose pack had a market price of $12.56 the same morning. You pay about $19 for the box, the Nidorina promo and the sleeves. Our Elite Trainer Box price page adds a reading every Monday.
Why singles fell so far: the packs are generous
In that October 4 thread, u/Hartia (848 points) blamed supply:
"It's because booster bundles just came out and pull rates are still just as amazing." The bundle did come out on October 2, two days before that post, and TCGplayer's own count backs the second half. In more than 3,000 packs it found a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 21, where most Mega Evolution sets run 1 in 80. Our 30th Celebration pull rates page has the rest of that count with its error bars.
More packs are coming. Pokémon lists both Ultra-Premium Collections for November 6, each with 29 booster packs and one Classic Collection pack, and the Ditto Premium Collection the same day with eight. u/doublea08 (231 points) in the same thread: "Wait till the UPC’s come out! They’ll go down even more!" We don't know how much those boxes will move singles. One of the 30 packs in each is a Classic Collection pack, which had a market price of $310.87 on its own on October 16, more than half of the Day box's $560.67, so its price per pack can't be set against an ETB's. The 10% test in our call above is how we'll tell. Our Day vs Night breakdown prices what's inside each.
Product image: pokemon.com
Related reading
- How to sell Pokémon cards: what TCGplayer and eBay fees take, if you're selling into the drop instead.
- How to check a Pokémon card's value: why a market price and an asking price aren't the same number.
- 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box: what's in the nine-pack box and its list price.
References
- Pokémon: 30th Celebration product showcase (release dates, pack counts)
- TCGplayer: 30th Celebration pull rates
- TCGplayer Price Guide: ME: 30th Celebration
- TCGplayer: 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box
- Bill's Archive: 30th Celebration prices, release day to now
- Bill's Archive: 30th anniversary English products and MSRP
- r/PokemonTCG: 30th single prices are crashing
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