Mega Rayquaza ex SIR: What 7 Mega SIRs Did After Launch

There's no Mega Rayquaza ex SIR price yet: the English card hasn't been shown, and TCGplayer only expects it to be Delta Reign's most valuable card. Seven of the priciest Mega ex SIRs before it do have a record. Six of them have a TCGplayer price from the week their set came out, and on October 20, 2026, all six had a lower market price than in that week, by 10% to 73%.

That matters if you're opening packs at a Delta Reign prerelease from October 24, or pricing a preorder for a card nobody has seen. Here's each card's path on TCGplayer, where the pattern held, and where it bent.

Seven Mega ex SIRs, release week to October 20

We took the most expensive Mega ex Special Illustration Rare in each of the six Mega Evolution sets on October 20, 2026, plus Mega Dragonite ex, Ascended Heroes' second Mega SIR above $400. Picking by today's price favors the cards that held up, so the cheaper Mega ex SIRs in these sets may have done worse. For each card, the table compares TCGplayer's market price in the week the set came out with the market price on October 20.

Source: TCGplayer price history for each card (the Near Mint data behind the product-page chart), read October 20, 2026, 10:53 UTC. TCGplayer's weeks start on a Monday, and "release week" is the one holding the release date; sales are Near Mint copies sold that week. The 1Y table on the product page labels each week with the seven days before it (the week starting July 20 shows as "7/14 to 7/20"), so read there, every week looks one week early. Mega Gardevoir ex's one-year window starts a month after its release, so it has no release-week price. Changes are our arithmetic.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer price history for each card, read Oct 20, 2026. Release week = 100%.

That makes 6 of 6 below their release week. The three newest barely got above it: Mega Darkrai ex never had a higher week after release, and Mega Zygarde ex and Mega Greninja ex were up 0.3% and 4% the week after, then fell. Darkrai's one higher reading, $375.00, was a single sale in the week of July 6, the week before Pitch Black came out.

Why the newest three fell and the priciest three climbed first

The three newest Mega SIRs fell from the first weeks

Perfect Order, Chaos Rising and Pitch Black followed the same line: the release week, or the one after it, was the top, and the price slipped almost every week after. Mega Greninja ex went from $437.99 in its release week to $272.66 five weeks later and kept going, to $119.91. Mega Zygarde ex lost more than a quarter of its price by its eighth week after release, and Mega Darkrai ex about a third.

Two numbers on the same TCGplayer pages help explain it. The three falling cards sold 775 to 1,066 copies over the last three months and had 266 to 525 copies listed on October 20. The other four, all from older sets, sold 94 to 213 and had 144 to 190 listed. One likely reason is the sets: with six SIRs each, one named SIR in those three sets comes out about once in 480 to 496 packs, by TCGplayer's counts. In Ascended Heroes, with 22 SIRs, it's once in 1,533. Our Special Illustration Rare pull rates have the full table.

Collectors noticed while it was happening. "Sold my SIR Mega Greninja after the first pre release immediately for $650," u/replaytheparadox wrote on r/PokemonTCGCollectors on July 1, under a post about a Darkrai pulled before release. We can't check that sale, but TCGplayer's weekly market for the card never went above $456.75, and the highest Near Mint sale it logged in any week was $620, so $650 was early-buyer money. The top reply in the same thread, at 180 points, said to sell "when it's probably at the highest and come back and rebuy it after the set has been released for a few weeks." For Pitch Black, that worked: Mega Darkrai ex was $294.49 in its release week and $140.25 fourteen weeks later.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer product pages, Total Sold and Current Quantity, read Oct 20, 2026.

Where the pattern bends: Charizard X and Ascended Heroes

Of the six with a release-week price, Mega Charizard X ex fell hardest in the first five weeks: from $781.05 in its release week to $578.87 the next week and $455.06 by the week of December 15, $325.99 lower. Then it climbed 94% to $880.70 by the week of April 27, spent 16 weeks between mid-March and late July above its release-week price, and slid back to $616.59. Ascended Heroes' two cards went up within weeks: Mega Gengar ex to $1,420.03 in the week of May 4, Mega Dragonite ex to $876.69 in the week of June 1. Both have given that back and sit below where they started, though those starting prices rest on only two and three sales.

So for the three priciest cards the record cuts both ways. Selling in the release week still beat holding to October, but anyone who held through the winter had months to sell higher.

u/chewbaccashotlast put it this way in June, in a thread about holding a Greninja SIR: "Prices drop as more product is ripped and floods the market. There are some outliers to this (Ascend Heroes) but even the BAMF mega Charizard saw dips after release." The record agrees on both counts. The outliers were a Charizard and a set with 22 SIRs, and even they ended below their release weeks.

Rayquaza does have something the newest three lacked. In Japan, Mega Rayquaza ex held Storm Emeralda's top two prices on October 3, according to Bill's Archive: the Mega Ultra Rare 113/076 at about ¥69,800 ($946) and the Special Art Rare 110/076, one of the Special Art Rares that close the Japanese set, at about ¥39,800 ($324). There's a retail-side view too. Asked on r/PokeInvesting in July whether the days of scalpers were ending, u/More_Researcher_5739 answered that "30th and RayRay will be scalped into oblivion." That's about sealed product selling out, not the SIR's price, and a Japanese price says nothing yet about how many English copies there will be.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer price history for each card, read Oct 20, 2026.

Our read: sell a prerelease Rayquaza early, wait to buy one

If you pull the Mega Rayquaza ex SIR at a prerelease from October 24 and you'd sell it anyway, sell in the first weeks, around the November 6 release. All six Mega ex SIRs with a release-week price were lower on October 20 than in that week, so in none of them did holding until now beat selling at release. The months above it for Charizard X, Gengar and Dragonite were a timing bet, and nobody knew in advance which cards would get them. If you want to keep one, there's no rush to buy at release: the three newest cards all hit their lowest readings in October, and even Charizard X cost $325.99 less in mid-December than in its release week.

For selling, our guide to selling Pokémon cards has what each platform keeps from a sale, and our prerelease guide has what to bring so a hit goes home in a top loader.

What would change our mind

Delta Reign has six SIRs in TCGplayer's preview, the same count as the three sets that fell from the start, so the card count doesn't argue for an exception. Two things could. If English packs are as hard to buy as u/More_Researcher_5739 expects and fewer get opened, each SIR gets scarcer. And if the English Rayquaza sells the way the Japanese one has, it could follow Charizard X: a 42% drop in its first five weeks, then a climb. Neither is known before release. The Japanese prices are a single Bill's Archive reading, and none of this is a forecast.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you pull the Mega Rayquaza ex SIR at a prerelease?

Yes. TCGplayer's preview lists a Special Illustration Rare version of Mega Rayquaza ex among Delta Reign's six SIRs, and the Build & Battle Box holds four Delta Reign booster packs, with Pokémon recommending stores add three more. No pull-rate count exists before the November 6 release. At Pitch Black's odds for one named SIR, 1 in 480 packs, seven packs would give about a 1.4% chance.

References

• Mega Darkrai ex 116/084, Pitch Black, TCGplayer, product page and price history read Oct 20, 2026
• Mega Greninja ex 116/086, Chaos Rising, TCGplayer, read Oct 20, 2026
• Mega Zygarde ex 120/088, Perfect Order, TCGplayer, read Oct 20, 2026
• Mega Gengar ex 284/217, Ascended Heroes, TCGplayer, read Oct 20, 2026
• Mega Dragonite ex 290/217, Ascended Heroes, TCGplayer, read Oct 20, 2026
• Mega Charizard X ex 125/094, Phantasmal Flames, TCGplayer, read Oct 20, 2026
• Mega Gardevoir ex 178/132, Mega Evolution, TCGplayer, read Oct 20, 2026
• Everything We Know About Pokémon TCG Delta Reign, TCGplayer
• Delta Reign, Bill's Archive, Storm Emeralda prices as of Oct 3, 2026
• Ascended Heroes pull rates, TCGplayer Authentication Center
• Play at a Delta Reign Prerelease Event, pokemon.com
• Pulled the darkrai SIR out of a pitch black etb this morning, r/PokemonTCGCollectors, comments by u/replaytheparadox and u/DatsASweetAssMoFo
• Thoughts on holding/selling Mega Greninja SIR, r/PokeInvesting, comment by u/chewbaccashotlast
• Pitch Black Mega Darkrai Dropping Under $300!, r/PokeInvesting, comment by u/More_Researcher_5739