Ascended Heroes Pull Rates: 1 SIR in 70 Packs, by Product

No published count shows Ascended Heroes pull rates changing with the box: TCGplayer's count puts a Special Illustration Rare at 1 in 70 packs, so a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box has about a 12% chance of one. What the box changes is the price of each pack, from $10.23 loose to $29.84 in a Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box on October 23, 2026.

If you're choosing between a tin, a bundle and an ETB, or wondering whether the God Pack is real, here are the odds per pack, the math per product and what each rarity was worth on October 23. All prices are English cards, TCGplayer market price, US shipping.

The odds per pack come from TCGplayer's 2,000-pack count

TCGplayer's Authentication Center opened more than 2,000 Ascended Heroes packs after the Elite Trainer Box came out on February 20, 2026, and published the rates on February 24. Pull rates and hit rates mean the same thing here: the share of packs holding each rarity.

Sources: TCGplayer, Pokémon TCG Ascended Heroes Pull Rates (2,000+ packs, Feb 24, 2026); TCGplayer market prices, English singles, read Oct 23, 2026. Averages by SetPulls.

Chart: SetPulls. Sources: TCGplayer Ascended Heroes pull rates; r/PokemonTCG 7,047-pack log, Mar 29, 2026.

Two things in that table are particular to this set. The Mega Attack Rare is new: TCGplayer says it "effectively replaces an Ultra Rare in packs where they appear," which is why Ultra Rares sit near 5% here against about 8% in the earlier Mega Evolution sets. And the set is big, 295 cards on Pokémon's checklist, which TCGplayer calls "the largest English Pokémon set ever." Of the six Mega Evolution counts, Ascended Heroes has the highest per-pack SIR rate, though all six sit within each other's margins, and, with the slot split 22 ways, the worst odds at any one named SIR, as our Special Illustration Rare guide lays out set by set. The Ascended Heroes set page keeps the full card list.

There's a second count. u/Smooth-Following-659 logged 7,047 packs with nine friends and four local stores and posted it on r/PokemonTCG on March 29, 2026 (more than 540 points). Their packs came from "blisters, ETBs, tins, and collection boxes": 70 packs with one SIR, 5 God Packs, and 9 gold cards. One run of theirs went "no SIR was hit from 250+ packs," another "three was hit from 50 packs." Both are odd but not alarming. At 1.44% a pack, 250 packs with no SIR happens about 3% of the time, and three or more in 50 packs about 3.5%. Their single-SIR rate, 0.99%, is lower than TCGplayer's but inside its range of 0.94% to 1.94%, and their 0.13% gold rate is inside TCGplayer's too.

Overview by product: no measured difference in odds, different price per pack

Every Ascended Heroes product in the table is a stack of the same set's packs, most with a promo or accessories added. Pokémon's showcase and product pages list what's inside and give no odds, and no published count splits the odds by product, so on the numbers we have, the chance of an SIR depends on how many packs you open.

Sources: Pokémon product showcase (Jan 14, 2026) and the Tin's product page for pack counts; TCGplayer listing for the Focused Fighters count, which Pokémon's showcase doesn't include; TCGplayer market prices, US shipping, read Oct 23, 2026. Chances at 1.44% a pack and hit-card averages by SetPulls.

Chart: SetPulls. Sources: Pokémon product pages; TCGplayer market prices, Oct 23, 2026.

Read the table by the per-pack column. Loose packs, the Sam's Club collection, the tins and the Tech Sticker Collections all sat between $10.23 and $10.83 a pack. The Booster Bundle, which only came out on April 24, ran $12.60. A regular Elite Trainer Box, which adds an N's Zekrom promo and accessories, came to $14.60 a pack, and the Pokémon Center version about twice that. Nothing in the last column returns its price: an ETB held an average $34.41 of hit cards against $131.37, before fees. The set has no booster box, so there's no 36-pack price to beat.

Where the rule breaks: God Packs and the product question

God Packs are real and too rare to count

TCGplayer says "a vanishingly small number" of Ascended Heroes packs hold three Mega Attack Rares and seven Special Illustration Rares, confirmed by people posting their pulls, and it found none in its 2,000+ packs. The hand log had 5 in 7,047, about 1 in 1,400, and its author wrote that the data isn't enough to conclude a God Pack rate. So no one has a God Pack rate to give you, and the hit-card averages above leave them out, as TCGplayer's rates do.

Nobody has counted by product

In the same thread, u/Codedheart (at least 20 points as of October 23, March 30, 2026) argued that "pretty much any big name that compiles data and puts it out as " set XYZ pullrates!" never discerns between which product they are counting and just assumes the same pull rate across all products in a set."

*Embedded from r/PokemonTCG, comment by u/Codedheart, Mar 30, 2026.*

For this set that's a fair description of both counts. TCGplayer doesn't say which products its 2,000+ packs came from, and the hand log mixed blisters, ETBs, tins and collection boxes. Codedheart's theory, which they hedged with "idk if it is," rests on booster boxes holding a set number of hits; Ascended Heroes has no booster box, so neither count is padded by box hits. The two counts agree within TCGplayer's own margin. A gap between a tin and an ETB isn't ruled out; it's unmeasured. That's why our call rests on price per pack.

What a pack is worth: SIRs are more than half

Multiply each rate by its rarity's average price and an average Ascended Heroes pack held $3.82 of hit cards on October 23, before fees: 37% of a loose pack's price. SIRs were 54% of that, Illustration Rares 17% and the two gold cards 10%. Our booster pack guide ran the same sum for Pitch Black and got 25%.

Chart: SetPulls. Sources: TCGplayer pull rates and market prices, Oct 23, 2026. Computed by SetPulls.

The thread's top comment, from u/Musa_2050 (more than 340 points, March 29, 2026), was a complaint: "I hate it. The demand is at an all time high, but lets make pull rates more difficult. Making the singles more expensive than they should be." On October 23 prices, the expensive singles are four cards, not the whole SIR list. Eleven of the 22 SIRs were under $50, with a median of $47.80, while Mega Gengar ex 284/217 ($751.09), Pikachu ex 276/217 ($654.69), Mega Dragonite ex 290/217 ($445.99) and Pikachu ex 277/217 ($286.94) made up 67% of the SIRs' summed price.

For those four, packs lose badly. A named SIR is 1 in 1,533 packs, about $15,683 of loose packs, 21 times Mega Gengar ex's price. The gold Mega Charizard Y ex 294/217 is 1 in 1,080, about $11,048 of packs for a $256.20 card. Our Mega Hyper Rare guide runs the same sum for every gold card in the series.

Our read: buy the cheapest pack, or the single

The call: open Ascended Heroes from whatever costs least per pack, which on October 23 meant loose packs, tins and Tech Sticker Collections at under $11 a pack, because neither published count shows any product hitting more often. Pay ETB prices for the promo and accessories, not for better odds. For one named card, buy the single.

What would change our mind: a published Ascended Heroes count, split by product, with a gap between products wider than its own margin.

References

• Pokémon TCG Ascended Heroes Pull Rates, TCGplayer, Feb 24, 2026
• Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Ascended Heroes product showcase, pokemon.com
• Ascended Heroes Tin, pokemon.com product gallery
• Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box, pokemon.com product gallery
• Ascended Heroes card list (PDF), pokemon.com
• Ascended Heroes Booster Pack, Focused Fighters Premium Collection and Ascended Heroes singles, TCGplayer, market prices read Oct 23, 2026
• Ascended Heroes SIR pull rates from 7000 packs, r/PokemonTCG, post by u/Smooth-Following-659, comments by u/Codedheart and u/Musa_2050