Special Illustration Rare Pull Rates: 7 Sets, Cost per Hit

Special Illustration Rare pull rates in TCGplayer's six Mega Evolution counts run from 1 in 70 packs for Ascended Heroes to 1 in 101 for Mega Evolution, and 30th Celebration gives one every 21. At October 22, 2026 prices, the average SIR in every one of those sets was worth about a fifth at most of the packs it takes to pull it, so buy the one you want.

That's worth knowing if you're opening a prerelease kit from October 24, or weighing a box against the card you're after. The rates come first, then what the SIRs are worth, then what a handful of packs gives you.

Overview: Special Illustration Rare pull rates in seven sets

Each figure is TCGplayer's per-pack rate for any SIR in the set, from its Authentication Center counts. "One named SIR" is the rate for the specific card you want, which depends on how many SIRs the set has. For every other slot in the newest set, see our 30th Celebration pull rates.

Source: TCGplayer Authentication Center pull-rate articles, one per set, re-read October 12, 2026. Margins are TCGplayer's 95% intervals. SIR counts from TCGplayer's set searches, October 20, 2026.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer Authentication Center counts.

The six Mega sets sit within each other's margins, so treat them as one rate, about one SIR in 80 packs. 30th Celebration is the outlier at four times that, and its packs hold five cards, half of a Mega pack's ten. The gap that matters more is the last column: of the six Mega sets, Ascended Heroes has the highest per-pack rate and the worst odds at any one SIR, because it splits the slot 22 ways. Ascended Heroes' count also found none of its God Packs in 2,000+ packs, so they're not in the rate. For a one-card version of this table, see our glossary entry on pull rates.

What the SIRs pay back on a pack

To see what those odds cost, we priced a pack at TCGplayer's market price for a loose Booster Pack of each set on October 22. When we checked on October 20, buying them in a six-pack Booster Bundle cost more per pack in every set, from $0.30 more (Chaos Rising) to $3.01 more (Ascended Heroes), so the returns below are the better case.

Source: TCGplayer market prices, US shipping, October 22, 2026, 02:06 to 02:08 UTC, SIRs and loose Booster Packs read together, set by set. "Packs for one SIR" is TCGplayer's packs-per-SIR figure times the pack price; "SIR value per pack" is the per-pack rate times the average SIR. Our arithmetic, SIR slot only.

Divide the last column by the pack price and the SIR slot returns 8 cents (Mega Evolution) to 20 cents (Ascended Heroes) for every dollar you spend on packs. In the three newest Mega sets, loose packs are cheap, $5.29 to $5.93, and so are the SIRs. In Mega Evolution, Phantasmal Flames and Ascended Heroes, the SIRs average $74.11 to $145.16 and a pack costs $9.02 to $11.54. 30th Celebration's SIRs average about what Pitch Black's do, $44.19 against $51.79, but its packs cost twice as much.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer market prices read Oct 22, 2026; TCGplayer Authentication Center rates.

That table only counts the SIR slot. The rest of the pack has Double Rares, Illustration Rares and, rarely, a Mega Hyper Rare, so a pack is worth more than its SIR value. Our Pitch Black worth-opening page prices every slot and still finds packs return less than they cost.

One card is most of the average

Phantasmal Flames shows why the average flatters a set. Its five SIRs added up to $667.26 on October 22, and Mega Charizard X ex was $608.93 of that, 91%. The other four had market prices of $11.06 to $17.21. Pull an SIR from that set and it's four times as likely to be a card under $18 as the Charizard.

Card image: tcg.pokemon.com (both cards). $608.93 and $11.06 on TCGplayer, October 22, 2026.

What seven packs, an ETB or a box gives you

A Delta Reign prerelease seat gets you seven packs when the store adds the three participation packs, an Elite Trainer Box nine, and a booster box 36 in the five sets that have one. Here's the chance of at least one SIR in each, at each set's own rate.

Our arithmetic: 1 − (1 − rate)^packs, from TCGplayer's per-pack rates. Ascended Heroes and 30th Celebration have no booster box. No count exists for Delta Reign before its November 6 release.

Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer Authentication Center rates.

In a thread about a lucky 40-pack Pitch Black opening in July, u/Kind-Comparison2371 was "75 packs in and one SIR," a reply with 51 points, and u/iambush answered with the math for the long run: "Even once you open 82 packs you'll still only have hit about a 60% chance to have any SIR. You have to open double that (164 packs) to have an 80% chance of at least 1 SIR." The direction is right and the numbers are a little low. At Pitch Black's 1.25%, 82 packs give about 64% and 164 packs about 87%. Either way, a booster box of a Mega set more often than not has no SIR in it, and the pull rate calculator runs any pack count for you.

A hit doesn't change the math much. In August, u/Rhysthomas2312 bought a Pitch Black booster box as "my first ever TCG purchase as an adult" and pulled Mega Chandelure ex: "I know it's in the lower tier of the SIR's in the set but I'm over the moon." On October 21 that card had a $30.99 market price, about a sixth of the $181.97 a Pitch Black box cost the day before. That was the good outcome, one of the roughly 36% of boxes with an SIR in them.

Our verdict: buy the SIR you want as a single

Open packs because you enjoy it, and buy the Special Illustration Rare you want as a single. In all seven sets, the SIR slot returned 8 to 20 cents for every dollar spent on loose packs at October 22 prices, and one named SIR costs 205 to 1,533 packs on average. If you're choosing where to open for hits at all, 30th Celebration's 1 in 21 is the only rate of the seven that turns up an SIR in a single Elite Trainer Box more than a third of the time. For the gold cards, the same logic is in our Mega Hyper Rare pull rates, and our prerelease guide covers the cheapest way to get seven Delta Reign packs.

What would change our mind

A set whose SIRs hold their price while packs stay near their $4.49 list price, $26.94 a bundle. At list, Pitch Black's 80 packs for one SIR would cost $359, still well above its $51.79 average SIR. So it would take both cheaper packs and SIRs that keep their value, and on October 22 none of the seven sets had both.

What collectors say about these odds

When the first Mega Evolution count reached r/PokemonTCG in September 2025, the reply with 181 points was short. "Holy shit just buy the singles you want," u/DakPresglock wrote.

30th Celebration got the opposite reaction a year later. "Wish these were the pull rates for all sets," u/After_Working wrote at 127 points. It is the best set here for hits and still returned only 18 cents in SIRs per dollar of loose packs on October 22. Another reply in that thread, from u/adle1984 at 54 points, added a wait to the same plan: "if you want a specific CC or SIR, just buy the single after 2-3 months."

Frequently Asked Questions

Does a booster box guarantee a Special Illustration Rare?

No. English packs are independent of each other, so a 36-pack booster box had about a 30% to 36% chance of at least one SIR in the five Mega sets that sell one, at TCGplayer's rates, and no SIR at all is the more likely result. Ascended Heroes and 30th Celebration have no booster box. Japan is different: Bill's Archive found exactly one SIR or SAR in each of 57 boxes of M6a, the Japanese version of 30th Celebration, whose boxes hold 20 packs.

References

• Mega Evolution pull rates, TCGplayer Authentication Center
• Phantasmal Flames pull rates, TCGplayer Authentication Center
• Ascended Heroes pull rates, TCGplayer Authentication Center
• Perfect Order pull rates, TCGplayer Authentication Center
• Chaos Rising pull rates, TCGplayer Authentication Center
• Pitch Black pull rates, TCGplayer Authentication Center
• 30th Celebration pull rates, TCGplayer Authentication Center
• Phantasmal Flames Special Illustration Rares, TCGplayer search, read Oct 20 and Oct 22, 2026 (one such search per set)
• Pitch Black sealed products, TCGplayer search, read Oct 20 and Oct 22, 2026 (one such search per set)
• Pitch Black product showcase, pokemon.com
• Mega Evolution Pull Rates, r/PokemonTCG, comment by u/DakPresglock
• Pitch Black booster box with the Mega Chandelure ex SIR, r/PokemonTCG, post by u/Rhysthomas2312
• A 40-pack Pitch Black opening thread, r/PokemonTCG, comment by u/iambush
• TCGplayer 30th pull rates, r/PokemonTCG, comments by u/After_Working and u/adle1984
• 30th Celebration pull rates, Bill's Archive, on English pack independence and Japanese M6a boxes