Is Pitch Black worth opening?
What opening Pitch Black returns, product by product, from TCGplayer's measured pull rates (4,000+ packs, published July 21, 2026) and the TCGplayer market price of every hit card on October 12, 2026. A pack holds $1.50 of hit cards on average, before fees. After a 13.25% selling fee, none of the 4 products with a sourced MSRP return more than they cost at MSRP, and none of the 5 return more than their own market price. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos count as $0 unless you change that in the calculator.
Card prices as of October 12, 2026. Sealed prices as of October 12, 2026.
The answer by product
Net EV is after a 13.25% selling fee with bulk at $0. ROI compares it with the cost; break-even is the share of 20,000 simulated openings worth at least the cost.
Booster Display Box (36 packs)
Keep sealed or buy singles
At MSRP At market Cost $161.64 $184.18 ROI −71% −75% Breaks even 4% 2% Net EV $46.70 ($35.33 to $58.06), $53.83 before fees. Pay at most $46.70.
Market price on TCGplayer, October 12, 2026Elite Trainer Box (9 packs)
Keep sealed or buy singles
At MSRP At market Cost $49.99 $78.63 ROI −77% −85% Breaks even 5% 3% Net EV $11.67 ($8.83 to $14.51), $13.46 before fees. Pay at most $11.67.
Market price on TCGplayer, October 12, 2026Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box (11 packs)
Keep sealed or buy singles
At MSRP At market Cost $59.99 $118.57 ROI −76% −88% Breaks even 5% 3% Net EV $14.27 ($10.80 to $17.74), $16.45 before fees. Pay at most $14.27.
Market price on TCGplayer, October 12, 2026Booster Bundle (6 packs)
Keep sealed or buy singles
At MSRP At market Cost $26.94 $36.95 ROI −71% −79% Breaks even 6% 4% Net EV $7.78 ($5.89 to $9.68), $8.97 before fees. Pay at most $7.78.
Market price on TCGplayer, October 12, 2026Build & Battle Box (4 packs)
Keep sealed or buy singles
At MSRP At market Cost — $37.97 ROI — −86% Breaks even — 2% Net EV $5.19 ($3.93 to $6.45), $5.98 before fees. Pay at most $5.19.
Market price on TCGplayer, October 12, 2026
The small range under net EV uses the low and high ends of every rate's 95% confidence interval. A set gets this page only when at least 90% of the cards in its measured rarities have a price. Here 46 of 46 cards have a price.
What one opening looks like
The average hides how uneven a box is. Out of 20,000 simulated openings of each product, half returned less than the median below and one in ten returned less than the low figure, after fees.
| Product | 1 in 10 below | Median | 1 in 10 above | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Display Box | $13.76 | $28.25 | $133.74 | $46.70 |
| Elite Trainer Box | $1.13 | $5.25 | $25.93 | $11.67 |
| Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box | $1.83 | $6.66 | $32.03 | $14.27 |
| Booster Bundle | $0.43 | $2.86 | $11.62 | $7.78 |
| Build & Battle Box | $0.00 | $1.69 | $7.90 | $5.19 |
Where the value is
What each measured rarity adds to one pack: its rate times the average price of its cards, before fees. Rates from TCGplayer's 4,000+ packs; the full table with odds per card is on the Pitch Black set page.
| Rarity | Rate per pack | Cards (priced) | Average price | Value per pack | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 21.02%± 1.21 points | 10 (10) | $0.56 | $0.12 | 8% |
| Ultra Rare | 8.30%± 0.82 points | 18 (18) | $3.69 | $0.31 | 20% |
| Illustration Rare | 11.01%± 0.93 points | 11 (11) | $2.40 | $0.26 | 18% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25%± 0.33 points | 6 (6) | $54.66 | $0.68 | 46% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.09%± 0.09 points | 1 (1) | $137.85 | $0.12 | 8% |
| All hits | 95% range $1.13 to $1.86 | $1.50 | 100% | ||
The cards that carry the value
The ten most valuable cards in the measured rarities. The chance per pack is TCGplayer's own figure for one named card where it prints one, otherwise the rarity's rate divided by the cards in it.
| No. | Card | Rarity | Market price | Chance per pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Mega Darkrai ex | Special Illustration Rare | $145.83October 12, 2026 | 1 in 480 |
| 120 | Mega Darkrai ex | Mega Hyper Rare | $137.85October 12, 2026 | 1 in 1081 |
| 117 | Morpeko ex | Special Illustration Rare | $61.77October 12, 2026 | 1 in 480 |
| 114 | Mega Zeraora ex | Special Illustration Rare | $37.53October 12, 2026 | 1 in 480 |
| 115 | Mega Chandelure ex | Special Illustration Rare | $33.93October 12, 2026 | 1 in 480 |
| 119 | Gwynn | Special Illustration Rare | $25.78October 12, 2026 | 1 in 480 |
| 118 | Gladion's Final Battle | Special Illustration Rare | $23.12October 12, 2026 | 1 in 480 |
| 111 | Misty's Vitality | Ultra Rare | $10.02October 12, 2026 | 1 in 217 |
| 090 | Slowbro | Illustration Rare | $6.75October 12, 2026 | 1 in 100 |
| 101 | Mega Darkrai ex | Ultra Rare | $6.64October 12, 2026 | 1 in 217 |
Why the answer is usually no
5 of 5 products return less than their market price after fees. The closest is the Booster Display Box: $46.70 expected back against $184.18, −75%, and 2% of 20,000 simulated openings broke even.
The value sits in a few cards. Special Illustration Rares are 46% of a pack's expected value, at 1.25% a pack and $54.66 on average per card. Most openings miss them, which is why the typical (median) opening returns less than the average.
Run your own numbers
Change the price you pay, the fee, a value for bulk cards or the card prices; the numbers update with the same formulas as the table. Defaults: eBay fee 13.25%, bulk $0.00 per pack, card prices as published.
- EV before fees
- $13.46
- Net EV
- $11.67
- ROI at your price
- −85%
- Pay at most
- $11.67
With the rates at the ends of their 95% intervals: $8.83 to $14.51 net. Nothing you type leaves this page.
How we calculate
- EV per pack = sum over each measured rarity of (rate per pack × average price of the cards in that rarity). A card without a price counts as $0.
- EV of a product = EV per pack × booster packs in it. Promos, dice, figures and the box itself are not counted.
- Net EV = EV × (1 − selling fee) + bulk value per pack × packs.
- ROI = net EV ÷ cost − 1. Pay at most = net EV: the price at which the expected return equals the cost.
- Break-even chance = share of 20,000 simulated openings (fixed seed) whose net value is at least the cost.
Assumptions
- Each measured rarity is drawn independently in every pack, and every card of a rarity is equally likely. TCGplayer makes the same assumption for its odds of one named card.
- Only the rarities TCGplayer measured count. Commons, uncommons, rares, reverse holos, energy, code cards and promos are bulk, $0 by default (the conservative case); the calculator lets you set a value per pack.
- Cards sell at their TCGplayer market price (Near Mint) on October 12, 2026. Selling dozens of cards takes time and prices move, most of all in the weeks after a release.
- The default fee is eBay's 13.25% final value fee for trading cards. Per-order fees ($0.30 to $0.40 on eBay, $0.30 on TCGplayer), shipping and tax are left out, so the real return is a little lower.
- Rates are measured on a sample and carry an error. The low and high EV use the ends of TCGplayer's 95% confidence interval for every rarity at once; the simulation uses the central rates.
Where each input comes from
- Pull rates: TCGplayer Authentication Center, 4,000+ packs, published July 21, 2026, 95% confidence intervals. Source
- Card prices: TCGplayer market price as republished by TCGdex (tcgdex.net), synced October 12, 2026; holofoil printing, else normal, never reverse holo. Source
- Sealed prices: TCGplayer market price of each product on October 12, 2026, from our sealed price tracker. Open
- MSRP: US MSRP from the set page, each with its source. Open
- Fees: eBay Collectible Card Games final value fee 13.25%; TCGplayer 10.75% commission plus 2.5% + $0.30 transaction fee. Source
Card data: TCGdex (tcgdex.net).
Why our number differs from other sites
worththerip.com puts the expected pulls of a Pitch Black Booster Box (36 packs) at $180.85 against a $182.26 price, with a 34% chance it pays for itself (read October 12, 2026). Our EV for the same box is $53.83 before fees and $46.70 after.
worththerip's pull-rate table lists the Special Illustration Rare at 3% and the Mega Hyper Rare at 1.2% of packs, early community estimates. TCGplayer measured 1.25% and 0.09% over 4,000 packs. With Mega Darkrai ex at the top of both rarities, those two rates account for most of the gap.
Our take
Pitch Black loses money to open at every price we track. The Booster Display Box returns $46.70 after fees against $161.64 at MSRP and $184.18 at market on October 12, 2026; 4% of simulated boxes broke even at MSRP and 2% at market. Two Mega Darkrai ex cards, at $145.83 and $137.85, carry much of the upside, but the Mega Hyper Rare turns up in 0.09% of packs. Open it for the fun of it, and buy the cards you want as singles.
FAQ
Is a Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box worth opening?
On average a Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box holds $13.46 of hit cards, $11.67 after a 13.25% selling fee (card prices of October 12, 2026). At its $49.99 MSRP that is −77%, and 5% of simulated openings broke even. At its $78.63 market price on October 12, 2026 it is −85%, with 3% breaking even.
What is the expected value of a Pitch Black booster pack?
$1.50 in hit cards before fees, from TCGplayer's measured rates and card prices on October 12, 2026. Using the low and high ends of the rates' 95% intervals gives $1.13 to $1.86. Bulk cards are not included.
What are the odds a Pitch Black Booster Display Box pays for itself?
In 20,000 simulated openings after fees, 2% returned at least the $184.18 market price and 4% returned at least the $161.64 MSRP. The median opening returned $28.25; one in ten returned more than $133.74.
Why does the EV leave out commons, uncommons and reverse holos?
TCGplayer measured rates only for the hit rarities, and bulk sells for little after fees and shipping. We count it as $0 so the number is a floor; set your own bulk value per pack in the calculator. The biggest single card here is Mega Darkrai ex (116) at $145.83 on October 12, 2026.
Last reviewed . Prices are refreshed every Monday.