Pokémon TCG pull rate calculator
Pick a set, a rarity or one named card, and what you plan to buy. The calculator turns TCGplayer's measured per-pack rates into the chance of pulling it, the packs you need for a 50%, 90% or 99% chance, and the cost at MSRP. It runs in your browser: nothing is sent or saved, and “Copy link” gives you a link to your result to share.
Chance of at least one Futuristic Rare in 9 packs
7.2%
4.6% to 9.8% across the 95% confidence interval of the measured sample (the source's interval on the rate, not one we computed for this result).
1 × Elite Trainer Box = $49.99 at MSRP, not market price.
| Goal | Packs | In boxes |
|---|---|---|
| 50% chance | 8461 to 133 | ≈ 10 × Elite Trainer Box |
| 90% chance | 277201 to 442 | ≈ 31 × Elite Trainer Box |
| 99% chance | 553402 to 884 | ≈ 62 × Elite Trainer Box |
| Expected packs to the first one | 120 | ≈ 14 × Elite Trainer Box |
| Expected packs to own all 2 Futuristic Rare cards | 361 | ≈ 41 × Elite Trainer Box |
Rates: TCGplayer Authentication Center, 3,000+ packs, published September 24, 2026.
Packs needed for a 50% or 90% chance, by set
Any card of each rarity, from the same formulas as the calculator. For one named card, pick it above or open the set page.
30th Celebration
| Rarity | Per pack | Packs for 50% | Packs for 90% | Packs to own every card (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 21.02% | 3 | 10 | 177 (12 cards) |
| Illustration Rare | 19.72% | 4 | 11 | 319 (18 cards) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 4.88% | 14 | 47 | 600 (10 cards) |
| Pikachu Rare | Every pack | 1 | 1 | 120 (30 cards) |
| Classic Collection | 10.15% | 7 | 22 | 1,181 (30 cards) |
| Futuristic Rare | 0.83% | 84 | 277 | 361 (2 cards) |
Pitch Black
| Rarity | Per pack | Packs for 50% | Packs for 90% | Packs to own every card (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 21.02% | 3 | 10 | 139 (10 cards) |
| Ultra Rare | 8.30% | 8 | 27 | 758 (18 cards) |
| Illustration Rare | 11.01% | 6 | 20 | 302 (11 cards) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | 56 | 184 | 1,176 (6 cards) |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.09% | 770 | 2,558 | 1,111 (1 card) |
Chaos Rising
| Rarity | Per pack | Packs for 50% | Packs for 90% | Packs to own every card (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.30% | 4 | 11 | 144 (10 cards) |
| Ultra Rare | 8.29% | 9 | 27 | 759 (18 cards) |
| Illustration Rare | 10.66% | 7 | 21 | 312 (11 cards) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.21% | 57 | 190 | 1,215 (6 cards) |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.10% | 693 | 2,302 | 1,000 (1 card) |
Perfect Order
| Rarity | Per pack | Packs for 50% | Packs for 90% | Packs to own every card (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.97% | 3 | 10 | 121 (9 cards) |
| Ultra Rare | 8.54% | 8 | 26 | 737 (18 cards) |
| Illustration Rare | 11.20% | 6 | 20 | 297 (11 cards) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.23% | 57 | 187 | 1,195 (6 cards) |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.06% | 1,155 | 3,837 | 1,667 (1 card) |
Ascended Heroes
| Rarity | Per pack | Packs for 50% | Packs for 90% | Packs to own every card (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.37% | 4 | 11 | 814 (39 cards) |
| Ultra Rare | 4.81% | 15 | 47 | 946 (14 cards) |
| Mega Attack Rare | 3.47% | 20 | 66 | 523 (7 cards) |
| Illustration Rare | 11.25% | 6 | 20 | 1,199 (33 cards) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.44% | 48 | 159 | 5,639 (22 cards) |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.19% | 365 | 1,211 | 1,579 (2 cards) |
Phantasmal Flames
| Rarity | Per pack | Packs for 50% | Packs for 90% | Packs to own every card (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.77% | 3 | 10 | 141 (10 cards) |
| Ultra Rare | 8.06% | 9 | 28 | 725 (17 cards) |
| Illustration Rare | 10.97% | 6 | 20 | 377 (13 cards) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | 56 | 184 | 913 (5 cards) |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.08% | 867 | 2,878 | 1,250 (1 card) |
Mega Evolution
| Rarity | Per pack | Packs for 50% | Packs for 90% | Packs to own every card (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.91% | 3 | 10 | 140 (10 cards) |
| Ultra Rare | 8.23% | 9 | 27 | 987 (22 cards) |
| Illustration Rare | 10.89% | 7 | 20 | 746 (22 cards) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 0.99% | 70 | 232 | 2,959 (10 cards) |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.08% | 867 | 2,878 | 3,750 (2 cards) |
How this is calculated
- Chance of at least one hit in n packs: 1 − (1 − p)^n, where p is the measured rate per pack (4.88% is p = 0.0488).
- Packs for a chance q (50%, 90%, 99%): ln(1 − q) ÷ ln(1 − p), rounded up.
- Expected packs to the first hit: 1 ÷ p.
- One named card: p ÷ k, where k is the number of cards of that rarity in the set's card list.
- Expected packs to own all k cards of a rarity: k × (1 + 1/2 + … + 1/k) ÷ p (the coupon collector's problem).
- Range: the same formulas with p minus and p plus the source's 95% confidence interval. It shows how far the answer moves within the measured sample's interval; it is not a confidence interval we computed for the result.
- Boxes: packs = packs per box × number of boxes. Cost = boxes × US MSRP, only where the set page cites an MSRP.
Assumptions
- English packs are independent: what one pack holds says nothing about the next. Japanese boxes do not work this way (a box can guarantee a hit), so this calculator covers English sets only.
- Each pack holds at most one card of a given rarity, and every card of a rarity is equally likely. TCGplayer's own "any specific card" column rests on the same even split.
- Packs in an Elite Trainer Box, bundle or collection are the same packs sold singly, with no special rate (The Pokémon Company's help center).
- A different pack inside a box, like the Classic Collection pack in the 30th Celebration Ultra-Premium Collection, is not counted: the measured rates cover regular packs only.
- A rarity with no measured rate, or with no published interval, gets no number here. We do not estimate one.
- Prices are MSRP, not what a box sells for today.
The help center line on boxed packs: What types of Trading Card Game products are available?
Where the rates come from
Every rate is the TCGplayer Authentication Center's measured count for that set, copied as published with its 95% confidence interval. Pack counts per box come from pokemon.com and MSRPs from the sources on each set page. When a set page changes, this page changes with it.
- 30th Celebration: TCGplayer's article, 3,000+ packs, published September 24, 2026.
- Pitch Black: TCGplayer's article, 4,000+ packs, published July 21, 2026.
- Chaos Rising: TCGplayer's article, 8,500+ packs, published June 4, 2026.
- Perfect Order: TCGplayer's article, 3,500+ packs, published April 3, 2026.
- Ascended Heroes: TCGplayer's article, 2,000+ packs, published February 24, 2026.
- Phantasmal Flames: TCGplayer's article, 5,000+ packs, published November 14, 2025.
- Mega Evolution: TCGplayer's article, 5,000+ packs, published September 30, 2025.
Our 30th Celebration pull rates article shows odds by product from Bill's Archive, a different pack count, so its figures sit slightly apart from the ones here. The FAQ below compares them.
FAQ
How many packs do I need to pull a Special Illustration Rare?
In 30th Celebration, TCGplayer measured 4.88% per pack, so 14 packs give a 50% chance and 47 packs a 90% chance. In the other sets here the rate is 0.99% to 1.44%, so a 50% chance takes 48 to 70 packs.
What are the odds of pulling one specific card?
We split the rarity's rate evenly over its cards, the same assumption behind TCGplayer's "any specific card" figure. One named 30th Celebration Special Illustration Rare is 4.88% ÷ 10, about 1 in 205 packs; TCGplayer prints 1 in 205.
Do Elite Trainer Boxes or bundles have better odds than loose packs?
No. The Pokémon Company says the packs in its boxed products are the same packs sold individually, with no special rate. The calculator only counts packs: the nine packs in an Elite Trainer Box are worth the same as nine loose packs.
Why do these numbers differ a little from Bill's Archive?
Our 30th Celebration pull-rates article quotes Bill's Archive: a 37% chance of a Special Illustration Rare in a nine-pack Elite Trainer Box, half of collectors with one within 14 packs and nine in ten within 45. This calculator uses TCGplayer's 4.88% from 3,000+ packs and gets 36.3%, 14 and 47. Different pack counts give slightly different rates; we use one source, TCGplayer, for every set.
Our take
Most chases on this page take more packs than one box holds. The useful numbers are the 90% column and the named-card line: they tell you how many boxes it takes before a pull is likely rather than lucky. When the packs for one named card cost more at MSRP than the single sells for, buy the single. The exception is the 30th Celebration Pikachu set: one Pikachu Rare comes in every pack, so all 30 take about 120 packs on average.
Last reviewed .