Every number on this page links to where it came from: pull rates from TCGplayer's measured pack count, the card list from the official checklist and TCGdex, and pack counts from pokemon.com. Last checked .
Chance of each rarity in one booster pack, with the 95% confidence interval TCGplayer reports. "Any specific card" is the chance of one named card of that rarity.
| Rarity | Per pack | ± (95% CI) | About 1 in | Cards in rarity | Any specific card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.77% | ± 1.12% | 5 | 10 | 1 in 48 |
| Ultra Rare | 8.06% | ± 0.75% | 12 | 17 | 1 in 211 |
| Illustration Rare | 10.97% | ± 0.86% | 9 | 13 | 1 in 118 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | ± 0.31% | 80 | 5 | 1 in 400 |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.08% | ± 0.08% | 1260 | 1 | 1 in 1260 |

Any card of each rarity, computed by us from the rates above with the method shown on the pull rate calculator. Each pack counts on its own; boxed packs are the same packs sold singly.
| Rarity | Per pack | Packs for 50% | Packs for 90% | Packs to own every card (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.77% | 3 | 10 | 141 (10 cards) |
| Ultra Rare | 8.06% | 9 | 28 | 725 (17 cards) |
| Illustration Rare | 10.97% | 6 | 20 | 377 (13 cards) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | 56 | 184 | 913 (5 cards) |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.08% | 867 | 2,878 | 1,250 (1 card) |
Chance of at least one Mega Hyper Rare in 9 packs
0.72%
0% to 1.4% across the 95% confidence interval of the measured sample (the source's interval on the rate, not one we computed for this result).
1 × Elite Trainer Box = $49.99 at MSRP, not market price.
| Goal | Packs | In boxes |
|---|---|---|
| 50% chance | 867433 or more | ≈ 97 × Elite Trainer Box |
| 90% chance | 2,8781,438 or more | ≈ 320 × Elite Trainer Box |
| Expected packs to the first one | 1,250 | ≈ 139 × Elite Trainer Box |
All 130 cards, with rarity and illustrator from TCGdex, fetched October 12, 2026. Tap a rarity to filter.
Showing 130 of 130 cards

| No. | Card | Rarity | Illustrator |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | Mega Charizard X ex | Mega Hyper Rare | Takuyoa |
| 125 | Mega Charizard X ex | Special Illustration Rare | danciao |
| 126 | Rotom ex | Special Illustration Rare | Yoshimi Miyoshi |
| 127 | Mega Sharpedo ex | Special Illustration Rare | nagimiso |
| 128 | Mega Lopunny ex | Special Illustration Rare | Kinu Nishimura |
| 129 | Dawn | Special Illustration Rare | Atsushi Furusawa |

Pack counts come from pokemon.com. US MSRPs are linked to the page that states them; where no source gives a price we say so instead of guessing.
| Product | Packs | US MSRP | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Display Box | 36 | $161.64 | celadoninfo.comsecondary source |
| Elite Trainer Box | 9 | $49.99 | celadoninfo.comsecondary source |
| Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box | 11 | $59.99Sold only by Pokémon Center. | celadoninfo.comsecondary source |
| Booster Bundle | 6 | $26.94 | celadoninfo.comsecondary source |
| Build & Battle Box | 4 | No sourced MSRPWe found no source that states a US price for this box. | n/a |
Phantasmal Flames is a small set, 130 cards against 188 in Mega Evolution, and that shows in the specific-card odds. From TCGplayer's 5,000+ packs, any Special Illustration Rare is about 1 in 80 and a named one about 1 in 400, with five in the set. TCGplayer finds the odds of any card of a given rarity identical to Mega Evolution: Double Rares 1 in 5, Illustration Rares 1 in 9. The Mega Charizard X ex Mega Hyper Rare is 0.08% per pack, about 1 in 1260, and its interval is as wide as the rate. If the Charizard is the goal, price 1260 packs against the single first.
it definitely feels easier to pull SIRs in this set compared to Mega Evolutions.
TCGplayer's Authentication Center opened more than 5,000 packs and measured, per pack: Double Rare 20.77%, Illustration Rare 10.97%, Ultra Rare 8.06%, Special Illustration Rare 1.25% and Mega Hyper Rare 0.08%. Each rate carries a 95% confidence interval, shown in the table above.
130 cards, printed out of 94, so 36 are secret rares: 13 Illustration Rares, 17 Ultra Rares, 5 Special Illustration Rares and 1 Mega Hyper Rare.
TCGplayer measured 0.08% per pack, about 1 in 1260 packs, with a 95% interval of ± 0.08%, so the true rate is very uncertain. Mega Charizard X ex is the one Mega Hyper Rare in the set.
Nine booster packs; the Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box has 11. Celadon Info, a secondary source, lists US MSRPs of $49.99 and $59.99.
36 booster packs, each with 10 cards and one Basic Energy. Celadon Info, a secondary source, lists a US MSRP of $161.64.