A pull rate is a count. Someone opened a pile of packs and wrote down how often each rarity turned up. Three things on that line tell you how far to trust it: how many packs were opened, the ± after the rate, and what “1 in 100” does and doesn't promise. Every number below comes from the TCGplayer Authentication Center's published counts, and the intervals are our own arithmetic on its pack counts.
TCGplayer says how many packs it opened for each set, always as “more than” a round number. We treat that number as a minimum: the real count is at least that, maybe a little higher. More packs means a rate you can lean on harder.
| Set | Packs opened | Published | Rarities measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30th Celebration | 3,000+ packs | September 24, 2026 | 5 |
| Pitch Black | 4,000+ packs | July 21, 2026 | 5 |
| Chaos Rising | 8,500+ packs | June 4, 2026 | 5 |
| Perfect Order | 3,500+ packs | April 3, 2026 | 5 |
| Ascended Heroes | 2,000+ packs | February 24, 2026 | 6 |
| Phantasmal Flames | 5,000+ packs | November 14, 2025 | 5 |
| Mega Evolution | 5,000+ packs | September 30, 2025 | 5 |
TCGplayer prints each rate with a 95% confidence interval, the ± after the percentage. It's the range the sample supports, and it shrinks as the pack count grows. A 95% interval doesn't mean a 95% chance the true rate is inside it; it means the method, run on many samples of the same size, catches the true rate about 95% of the time (NIST handbook).
We recomputed every ± from the pack count with the usual normal approximation, 1.96 × √(p(1 − p) ÷ n). Ours comes out equal to TCGplayer's or a hair wider, which is what you'd expect when the article's count is a minimum. The range column uses the Wilson interval (NIST), which never dips below zero for the rarest cards, where “rate minus ±” can land at 0% or under.
| Rarity | Per pack | TCGplayer ± | Our ± from the count | 95% range (Wilson) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th Celebration, 3,000+ packs | ||||
| Double Rare | 21.02% | ± 1.21% | ± 1.46% | 19.60% to 22.51% |
| Illustration Rare | 19.72% | ± 1.37% | ± 1.42% | 18.34% to 21.18% |
| Classic Collection | 10.15% | ± 1.04% | ± 1.08% | 9.12% to 11.28% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 4.88% | ± 0.74% | ± 0.77% | 4.17% to 5.71% |
| Futuristic Rare | 0.83% | ± 0.31% | ± 0.32% | 0.56% to 1.22% |
| Pitch Black, 4,000+ packs | ||||
| Double Rare | 21.02% | ± 1.21% | ± 1.26% | 19.79% to 22.31% |
| Ultra Rare | 8.30% | ± 0.82% | ± 0.85% | 7.48% to 9.20% |
| Illustration Rare | 11.01% | ± 0.93% | ± 0.97% | 10.08% to 12.02% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | ± 0.33% | ± 0.34% | 0.95% to 1.64% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.09% | ± 0.09% | ± 0.09% | 0.03% to 0.24% |
| Chaos Rising, 8,500+ packs | ||||
| Double Rare | 20.30% | ± 0.85% | ± 0.86% | 19.46% to 21.17% |
| Ultra Rare | 8.29% | ± 0.58% | ± 0.59% | 7.72% to 8.90% |
| Illustration Rare | 10.66% | ± 0.65% | ± 0.66% | 10.02% to 11.33% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.21% | ± 0.23% | ± 0.23% | 1.00% to 1.47% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.10% | ± 0.07% | ± 0.07% | 0.05% to 0.19% |
| Perfect Order, 3,500+ packs | ||||
| Double Rare | 20.97% | ± 1.34% | ± 1.35% | 19.65% to 22.35% |
| Ultra Rare | 8.54% | ± 0.92% | ± 0.93% | 7.66% to 9.51% |
| Illustration Rare | 11.20% | ± 1.03% | ± 1.04% | 10.20% to 12.29% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.23% | ± 0.36% | ± 0.37% | 0.91% to 1.65% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.06% | ± 0.08% | ± 0.08% | 0.02% to 0.21% |
| Ascended Heroes, 2,000+ packs | ||||
| Double Rare | 20.37% | ± 1.70% | ± 1.77% | 18.66% to 22.19% |
| Ultra Rare | 4.81% | ± 0.90% | ± 0.94% | 3.96% to 5.84% |
| Mega Attack Rare | 3.47% | ± 0.77% | ± 0.80% | 2.75% to 4.37% |
| Illustration Rare | 11.25% | ± 1.33% | ± 1.38% | 9.94% to 12.71% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.44% | ± 0.50% | ± 0.52% | 1.00% to 2.06% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.19% | ± 0.18% | ± 0.19% | 0.07% to 0.50% |
| Phantasmal Flames, 5,000+ packs | ||||
| Double Rare | 20.77% | ± 1.12% | ± 1.12% | 19.67% to 21.92% |
| Ultra Rare | 8.06% | ± 0.75% | ± 0.75% | 7.34% to 8.85% |
| Illustration Rare | 10.97% | ± 0.86% | ± 0.87% | 10.13% to 11.87% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | ± 0.31% | ± 0.31% | 0.98% to 1.60% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.08% | ± 0.08% | ± 0.08% | 0.03% to 0.21% |
| Mega Evolution, 5,000+ packs | ||||
| Double Rare | 20.91% | ± 1.12% | ± 1.13% | 19.81% to 22.06% |
| Ultra Rare | 8.23% | ± 0.76% | ± 0.76% | 7.50% to 9.02% |
| Illustration Rare | 10.89% | ± 0.86% | ± 0.86% | 10.06% to 11.78% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 0.99% | ± 0.27% | ± 0.27% | 0.75% to 1.30% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.08% | ± 0.08% | ± 0.08% | 0.03% to 0.21% |
One line doesn't fit. TCGplayer gives 30th Celebration's Double Rare as 21.02% ± 1.21%, character for character the Pitch Black line. More than 3,000 packs at 21.02% supports about ± 1.46; a ± of 1.21 would take about 4,400 packs, while 30th Celebration's other rows each point to roughly 3,200 to 3,300. We show the row as published. Read its ± as wider than printed.
To halve a ± you need four times the packs. Getting a 1.2% Special Illustration Rare rate down to ± 0.1 points would take about 45,547 packs, more than five times the largest count here. That's why the rarest cards keep wide ranges: Perfect Order's Mega Hyper Rare, measured at 0.06%, has a 95% range of about 1 in 5,900 packs to 1 in 470.
“1 in 100” is the average gap between hits, not a countdown. Every pack is a fresh draw, so after 99 misses the 100th pack still has the same 1% chance. The chance of at least one hit in n packs is 1 − (1 − p)n.
| Packs opened | Chance of at least one hit | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| 69 | 50.0% | 50% chance |
| 100 | 63.4% | "1 in 100" taken literally |
| 230 | 90.1% | 90% chance |
| 299 | 95.0% | 95% chance |
| 459 | 99.0% | 99% chance |
So 100 packs at “1 in 100” misses more than a third of the time (36.6%). The same holds for real sets. 30th Celebration's Special Illustration Rare is “1 in 21” at 4.88%: 21 packs give about 65.0%, and the 9 packs of an Elite Trainer Box about 36.3%. For a 90% chance you'd open 47. Packs in boxes are the same packs sold singly, with no special rate (Pokémon Support). Our pull rate calculator runs this for any set, rarity, card and box.
Cost per pack is a product's price divided by its booster packs. Divide it by the per-pack rate and you get the average spend to the first hit, at that price. It's an average: about six runs in ten come in under it, and the unlucky ones cost far more.
| Product | Packs | List price | Cost per pack | Average spend per SIR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite Trainer Box | 9 | $49.99 | $5.55 | $113.82 |
| Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box | 11 | $59.99 | $5.45 | $111.75 |
| Ditto Premium Collection | 8 | $39.99 | $5.00 | $102.43 |
| Ultra-Premium Collection (Day or Night) | 29 + 1 other | $179.99 | $6.00 | $127.18 |
| Binder Collection | 5 | $31.99 | $6.40 | $131.11 |
Expected value goes the other way: each card's market price times its chance per pack, added up, is what an average pack holds. It moves with prices every day. We work it out from current prices on Is 30th Celebration worth opening?
If a rate, pack count or price here doesn't match its source, tell us the set, the rarity, the number you see and where you read it. Email the correction. We fix it on the set page and here, and the page date changes.
Last reviewed .