Buying Pikachu ex 150/128 costs $59.16 (TCGplayer market price, October 12, 2026). Opening Elite Trainer Box packs at MSRP until one shows up costs about $1,138 on average, 19 times as much.
Source: TCGplayer market price; pull rate from TCGplayer Authentication Center; Elite Trainer Box MSRP per Bill's Archive, read October 12, 2026.

TCGplayer Authentication Center opened 3,000+ packs of 30th Celebration and found a Special Illustration Rare in 4.88% of them, give or take 0.74% at 95% confidence (published September 24, 2026).
The English set has 10 Special Illustration Rares, so one named card is 4.88% ÷ 10 = 0.49% a pack, about 1 in 205 packs; across the interval, 1 in 178 to 1 in 242. That split treats every Special Illustration Rare as equally likely, which is an assumption, not a count. TCGplayer's own figure for one specific Special Illustration Rare is 1 in 205.
For an even chance of pulling this card you need 142 packs, and 471 for a 90% chance.


Try other pack counts in the pull rate calculator with Pikachu ex 150/128 selected.
TCGplayer market price for a Near Mint holofoil copy: $59.16 on October 12, 2026, read by hand from the TCGplayer Price Guide's Market Price column.
On release day, September 16, 2026, Bill's Archive's snapshot of the same TCGplayer market price had it at $155.83; our first reading, $59.16 on October 12, 2026, is down 62% on that. The release-day figure is theirs, so the chart draws it as an open dot and our own change figure leaves it out.
October 12, 2026 is our first reading for this card. Each Monday's price refresh adds a point, and the change since that first reading shows here from the second one.
At the Elite Trainer Box MSRP of $49.99 for 9 packs ($5.55 a pack; the US price reported by Bill's Archive, read October 12, 2026), the 205 packs you would expect to open before the first Pikachu ex 150/128 cost about $1,138: 19 times the single's $59.16 on October 12, 2026. Across the interval the bill runs from $988 to $1,342.
Luck runs both ways. One box's 9 packs give a 4.3% chance of at least one copy (3.7% to 4.9% across the interval), and half of all openers will have pulled it within 142 packs, about $789 at MSRP. The other half are still opening at that point.


The other cards in those packs are worth something too; what a box returns on average is worked out on Is 30th Celebration worth opening?
Of the 188 30th Celebration cards with a market price on October 12, 2026, Pikachu ex 150/128 ranks seventh and makes up 4.0% of the $1,473.67 it costs to buy one of every card.
Every card and its price is on the 30th Celebration checklist.
kantaro drew no other card on 30th Celebration's English card list apart from other versions of Pikachu ex. Their other Pikachu ex card is in the questions below.
Of the two Pikachu ex Special Illustration Rares, both drawn by kantaro, this is the one the market now prices higher: $59.16 on October 12, 2026 against $47.38 for 149. On release day Bill's Archive had them the other way round, 150 at $155.83 and 149 at $159.59, so the first week's prices said little about which art would hold. Both pull at about 1 in 205 packs, and opening Elite Trainer Box packs for this one costs about $1,138 at MSRP, 19 times the single. If you want one Pikachu ex from the set, this one costs $11.78 more than 149; if you want the pair, both singles together cost $106.54, under a tenth of the packs for one.
30th Celebration has 3 Pikachu ex cards besides this one: Pikachu ex 053/128 (Double Rare, $1.10), Pikachu ex 054/128 (Double Rare, $1.26) and Pikachu ex 149/128 (Special Illustration Rare, $47.38), at TCGplayer market prices of October 12, 2026. The price and odds on this page are for 150/128 only.
No. It is TCGplayer's market price for a Near Mint copy, the condition of a raw card, not a PSA, CGC or Beckett grade. Whether grading pays at that price is what the grading calculator works out.
Last reviewed . Card prices are refreshed every Monday.