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Pikachu ex 149/128 price and pull rate

Buying Pikachu ex 149/128 costs $47.38 (TCGplayer market price, October 12, 2026). Opening Elite Trainer Box packs at MSRP until one shows up costs about $1,138 on average, 24 times as much.

TCGplayer market price
$47.38
October 12, 2026
packs per copy pulled, on average
205
1 / (4.88% ÷ 10)
in Elite Trainer Box packs at MSRP
$1,138
205 × $5.55

Source: TCGplayer market price; pull rate from TCGplayer Authentication Center; Elite Trainer Box MSRP per Bill's Archive, read October 12, 2026.

Pikachu ex 149/128 Special Illustration Rare by kantaro: Pikachu leads a parade of Pokémon, including Fuecoco, Sylveon and Slowpoke, across a rainbow under falling confetti.
Card image: tcg.pokemon.com
Set
30th Celebration (English)
Number
149/128, EN
Rarity
Special Illustration Rare
Illustrator
kantaro
Market price
$47.38, October 12, 2026 (TCGplayer, Near Mint)
Pull odds, this card
about 1 in 205 packs

How often it shows up in packs

TCGplayer Authentication Center opened 3,000+ packs of 30th Celebration and found a Special Illustration Rare in 4.88% of them, give or take 0.74% at 95% confidence (published September 24, 2026).

The English set has 10 Special Illustration Rares, so one named card is 4.88% ÷ 10 = 0.49% a pack, about 1 in 205 packs; across the interval, 1 in 178 to 1 in 242. That split treats every Special Illustration Rare as equally likely, which is an assumption, not a count. TCGplayer's own figure for one specific Special Illustration Rare is 1 in 205.

For an even chance of pulling this card you need 142 packs, and 471 for a 90% chance.

Line chart of the chance of pulling at least one Pikachu ex 149/128 by packs opened, at 0.49% a pack (0.41% to 0.56% across the interval, shaded): 4.3% after one Elite Trainer Box (9 packs), 50% after 142 packs, 90% after 471 packs.Line chart of the chance of pulling at least one Pikachu ex 149/128 by packs opened, at 0.49% a pack (0.41% to 0.56% across the interval, shaded): 4.3% after one Elite Trainer Box (9 packs), 50% after 142 packs, 90% after 471 packs.
Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer market price, October 12, 2026; pull rate from TCGplayer Authentication Center (3,000+ packs); Elite Trainer Box MSRP per Bill's Archive, read October 12, 2026, $49.99 for 9 packs.

Try other pack counts in the pull rate calculator with Pikachu ex 149/128 selected.

Price and how it has moved

TCGplayer market price for a Near Mint holofoil copy: $47.38 on October 12, 2026, read by hand from the TCGplayer Price Guide's Market Price column.

On release day, September 16, 2026, Bill's Archive's snapshot of the same TCGplayer market price had it at $159.59; our first reading, $47.38 on October 12, 2026, is down 70% on that. The release-day figure is theirs, so the chart draws it as an open dot and our own change figure leaves it out.

October 12, 2026 is our first reading for this card. Each Monday's price refresh adds a point, and the change since that first reading shows here from the second one.

$159.59 on September 16, 2026, Bill's Archive release-day snapshot$47.38 on October 12, 2026
TCGplayer market price of Pikachu ex 149/128: $159.59 on September 16, 2026 (Bill's Archive, release day); $47.38 on October 12, 2026. Filled dots are our readings; the open dot is Bill's Archive's release-day snapshot. Chart: SetPulls.

Single or packs?

At the Elite Trainer Box MSRP of $49.99 for 9 packs ($5.55 a pack; the US price reported by Bill's Archive, read October 12, 2026), the 205 packs you would expect to open before the first Pikachu ex 149/128 cost about $1,138: 24 times the single's $47.38 on October 12, 2026. Across the interval the bill runs from $988 to $1,342.

Luck runs both ways. One box's 9 packs give a 4.3% chance of at least one copy (3.7% to 4.9% across the interval), and half of all openers will have pulled it within 142 packs, about $789 at MSRP. The other half are still opening at that point.

Bar chart for Pikachu ex 149/128: buying the single costs $47.38 (TCGplayer market price, October 12, 2026); opening Elite Trainer Box packs at $5.55 a pack until the first copy costs about $1,138 on average ($988 to $1,342 across the pull-rate interval), 24 times the single; an even chance takes 142 packs, about $789.Bar chart for Pikachu ex 149/128: buying the single costs $47.38 (TCGplayer market price, October 12, 2026); opening Elite Trainer Box packs at $5.55 a pack until the first copy costs about $1,138 on average ($988 to $1,342 across the pull-rate interval), 24 times the single; an even chance takes 142 packs, about $789.
Chart: SetPulls. Source: TCGplayer market price, October 12, 2026; pull rate from TCGplayer Authentication Center (3,000+ packs); Elite Trainer Box MSRP per Bill's Archive, read October 12, 2026, $49.99 for 9 packs.

The other cards in those packs are worth something too; what a box returns on average is worked out on Is 30th Celebration worth opening?

Where it ranks in the set

Of the 188 30th Celebration cards with a market price on October 12, 2026, Pikachu ex 149/128 ranks tenth and makes up 3.2% of the $1,473.67 it costs to buy one of every card.

Every card and its price is on the 30th Celebration checklist.

Same illustrator in this set

kantaro drew no other card on 30th Celebration's English card list apart from other versions of Pikachu ex. Their other Pikachu ex card is in the questions below.

Our take

This was the dearer Pikachu ex on release day, $159.59 in Bill's Archive's snapshot, and it is now the cheaper one: $47.38 on October 12, 2026, 70% lower, while its partner 150 is at $59.16. No other Special Illustration Rare on our list has fallen as far from its release-day figure. That swing is the case for waiting on new-set singles: the art that cost most in week one was not the art that held. At 1 in 205 packs it takes about $1,138 of Elite Trainer Box packs to expect one, 24 times the single. Priced below 150, this is the cheaper way into the set's Pikachu ex art; buy it rather than open for it.

Questions this page leaves open

Which other Pikachu ex cards are in 30th Celebration?

30th Celebration has 3 Pikachu ex cards besides this one: Pikachu ex 053/128 (Double Rare, $1.10), Pikachu ex 054/128 (Double Rare, $1.26) and Pikachu ex 150/128 (Special Illustration Rare, $59.16), at TCGplayer market prices of October 12, 2026. The price and odds on this page are for 149/128 only.

Is $47.38 the price of a graded Pikachu ex?

No. It is TCGplayer's market price for a Near Mint copy, the condition of a raw card, not a PSA, CGC or Beckett grade. Whether grading pays at that price is what the grading calculator works out.

Where the numbers come from

Last reviewed . Card prices are refreshed every Monday.

Other 30th Celebration chase cards